External validation of the predictive model of mortality in elder people with community-acquired pneumonia.
Keywords:
Key words, mortality, pneumonia, predictive model.Abstract
Introduction: community-acquired pneumonia is the infectious disease leading to higher mortality in developed countries. The diagnosis goes through several moments, clinical symptoms, analytics, and images.
Objective: to perform the external validation of a predictive mathematical model of mortality in patients admitted by serious community-acquired pneumonia.
Method: longitudinal prospective (cohort) study with a group formed with all patients who were admitted to the Emergent Intensive Care Unit in the Military Hospital ¨Dr. Carlos Juan Finlay¨ with the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia, from February 2018 to March 2019. The universe was formed by 160 patients and no sample was chosen.
Results: Kappa index K= 1. Hosmer Lemenshow test= 0.650 with a high adjustment. Result of the model with sensibility= 79 %. Specificity= 91 % with (APV) = 80 and (NPV) = 91. RR= 9.1. Area under the curve= 0997. Percentage of correctness in logistic regression of 88.4 %.
Conclusions: The proposed model was a useful tool in the early detection of patients at near-term death risk. It allowed to unite in an only variant the result of others that apparently are not related one to another, making it easier the interpretation of the results, since it reflects the whole and not the individuality.
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