Progression to AIDS and prognosis facts in HIV-1 seropositive patients. Province of Matanzas. 1986-2003

Abstract

We carried out an analytic, observational, cohort, retrospective study to investigate the relation between progression to AIDS and some selected socio-demographic and medico-therapeutic variables, and also to obtain the prognosis facts of clinical progression in seropositive patients of the province of Matanzas. The sample was formed by 134 seropositive patients attended at the sanatorium “Ismael Triana” from January 1 st 1986 to December 31 st 2003. We used the Kaplan Meier model to analyze the survival and we obtained the time functions of progression to AIDS, calculated in an average of 109 months and the global survival (130 months); we also obtained the survival curves of the selected studied variables. During the follow-up, 46 seropositive patients progressed to AIDS, for an accumulated incidence of 35.65 %; 31 patients died by AIDS (23.1 %). The multivariate analysis using Cox's proportional risks model showed a worst prognosis of progression to AIDS because of the alcohol abuse (RR = 2.816; 1.438-5.5159), anaemia (RR = 2.027; 1.002-4.101), non-use of antiretroviral therapy (RR = 3.732; 1.882-7.398) and an average annual CD4 count between 201 and 350 cells/mm 3 (RR = 4.705; 2.218-9.983). The results of this investigation will be useful to improve the life quality and the survival of these patients since it identifies the facts propitiating a disease faster progression.